Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Market for Technology from US

In USA technology took a dead hit when we started assembling and making mass produce elsewhere outside USA. I along with others saw for ourselves those around us here from India as technical person know nothing about technology; they are screw driver engineers with no knowledge of engineering. Man power was profitable business. The basic insecurity and fear of not knowing any they are being employed for, drove panic across among Indian immigrant. It is always question of survival for India and Indians here who are committed to their residence in USA. Besides a million of them have no legal status. Many came here in training or business visa and did not go back. They are working in Apple, Google, Microsoft and do not even pay income tax. US otherwise so squeezed in worthwhile technical produce had to accept of this business model as long it survives. It is difficult to predict how long this free run of success would last.

We have already lost our technology game in car ship and getting squeezed increasingly in aerospace. Others are soon catching us with rocket and satellite. Our military acumen is only limited in few some countries in middle East. Our military expenditure we can no longer afford. We cannot think of winning any war now or in near future. We cannot afford confrontation with North Korea. Though far away we are worried about our soldiers in Asia.

As it happened we have a real estate business man as our president. He also knows his presidency is too good to last. He depends on funds from abroad to make use of for profit selling in future. Two years about passed his business is not making progress anywhere. Can he buy time?

Although US other than Trump would not want Chinese to dominate electronics or telecommunication market, As it happens bulk of parts within is our devices are being made by them and there is no competition within US. ZTE and Huawei have entered the market within US. Trump blacklisted them and now lifting the ban to the disappointment of backer of 5 trillion US internet companies.

Monopoly of search engine may not last. East Europe can enter the business of search engines and selling of personal information. It is big market of nearly 4 plus trillion. It was not very long ago, in  2004 Google went public. I did not find google good enough to survive. It is iconic now for its business model for PI collection and selling. Encouraged by federal support , it has quickly surpassed all. Now politicians within US are not very comfortable about their PI. It is expected we shall have browsers and OS that is public and protects PI by legislation soon. No amount of lobbying may prevent that.

Amazon retail model of online selling is in for surprise. It shall not be able to sustain market valuation past this year. It has local and global competitors.

Facebook is going to face lot of shutdowns in many countries. Individuals themselves willingly opt out from FB.

We have seen proliferation of Linux OS in Cloud. I am expecting Linus machines from Europe Japan and China in near future. Internet cloud already crowded with providers. Many new entrants are expected to provide VMWare based cloud infrastructure with Cloud Foundry Interface. 

Microsoft is expecting fast erosion of its public worth.

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